next world power = China?..

Falstaff

Oh yes of course.

Judas

so that easily makes 2 of us....

someone should rebuild this as a poll

BWX

The problem is the first post makes it sound like the the professor thinks the US is going to fade into nothingness or something and China will rule the world...

Of course China is a "world power".. but my suspicion is that some nutty professor is trying to indoctrinate students into thinking the US is going downhill into being nothing and that China will be the one world superpower in no time.

I guess it could happen, but I doubt it.. yes the US has some major problems that is bringing it down.. like idiotic immigration policies, ridiculous taxes, dumb energy policy, you name it- but that doesn't mean we are going to become a non world power any time soon. The freaking commies aren't going to be nuking us.

Nacht

oh, I forgot one last interesting point that really makes the U.S. a "World Power".

The United States is less than 5% of world population;
yet generates >25% of world output.

BWX

I have heard it described as the most efficient civilization ever to exist. I don;'t think it is because we are somehow smart, stronger or somehow more "special" than anyone else though..

I think that ANY group of people or country in the world would be just as successful if given freedom and the opportunity. The Bill of Rights is what separates us from everyone else. Of course our freedoms are being taken away with each passing law and amendment, so soon wee will be no different than any other county, we will have no more opportunity or advantage than any other country, and will lose our current status as "the one superpower" or the leader of the free world.

Nacht

Precisely BWX,

The key to economic success, among other things, is having clearly defined, enforced, and transferable property rights. Political stability, personal freedoms, and legal systems based on the rule of law are also necessities.

This is why communism failed. Without secued property rights, there is no point for private investment. That is why China can not be a true economic world power until it throws off its socialist based shackles of a government and puts in a multi-party, free-market based government.

cozumel

Incorrect. If the Peoples Republic of China continue with the same economic and socialist model currently used for the next twent years they WILL be the biggest economic power in the world. They will produce, export and employ more than any other country. Personal freedom and liberties do not come into the equation.

Maybe the question this thread should be asking is:
Is democracy and capitalism the only way to achieve economic success and global power?

Nacht

Their current economic model is capitalism. That is why it is working. They are currently allowing private investment and property rights. Neither of these things are allowed in true communism. If China can grow this much with such a decrepit system as communism, imagine what could be done with a truly free market there.

China's experiment with capitalism started in a single factory in eastern China, and it has spread over most of the eastern section of the nation.

I would say that capitalism is the only way to acheive a lasting, powerful economy. Democracy probably isnt a necessity (as we are seeing with China), but it definitely helps speed up the growth process.

cozumel

It is not capitalism. It is a liberalisation of the economy. Any business that you or I wish to begin does not get investigated by the government as to whether it could 'corrupt' the fabric of the socialist state. There cannot be capitalism without a free market.

Depending on which source you look at, growth in India and China are expected to be at very similar levels over the next five years. India is a democracy with more free market trading. It is corruption that holds both countries back from progressing quicker. Communism, I don't believe, makes that much difference when looking at economic potential.

Sturmbahn

I agree cozumel. China is riding on the US's back by dumping $billions of cheap products into the US and import very little back into China. The average consumer is happy to buy the cheap clothing, electronics, nearly anything both small and plastic, etc. They don't care where it's made, just the price. This will change either when China trades fairly (puts their currency on the free market, making their products more expensive), China's workers attain higher wages/benefits (making their products more expensive) or when the US consumers pay attention and change their buying habits to American only. Honestly though, it's somewhat difficult to blame Americans for buying Chinese products as this problem is so old that most of the home-grown companies
that China would compete with are long gone or gave up and moved their factories to China/India. Our market practically depends on cheap Chinese goods as there are few, if any, alternatives. I imagine that this holds true to the EU as well.

Freedom and opportunity are useless without responsibility and morality. These freedom-reducing laws are only put forward because people won't properly use the freedom and opportunity afforded them. Take guns for instance. There would be no need for gun control if people weren't idiots. How about abortion. If people (men and women) were responsible when alone together, there wouldn't be unwanted pregnancies (beyond rape or the potential death of a "responsible" mother - which abortion would be allowed for without the need to make it legal). This is why religion (I an agnostic, btw) is important - it keeps people in check. How can you go wrong with "treat others the way you want to be treated?"

BWX

Blaming the lawmaker's actions on the few idiots that commit crimes? Blaming abortion laws on unwed mothers? I don't think so, I blame the lawmaker's actions on the voters and corruption/greed. The voters that are becoming complacent and that have forgotten what it took from past generation of people who sacrificed everything so we could have the freedoms we have. The corruption of the lawmakers is obvious.. they take bribes basically- from special interest groups, etc...

Maybe if our justice system properly dealt with criminals there would be less criminals.. when someone gets a slap on the wrist for molesting children, the judge should be hung in town square. It's easy to make excuses for the government's corruption and blame it on the common criminal in the street or terrorists.. but the people are who they work for, we need to fire most of them.

Pompey

Communism does hinder economic growth. China is only developing because it opened up to foreign investment - wealth generated in capitalist economies. The goods produced are exported back to capitalist countries. Just compare the economies of communist and ex-communist countries with western/capitalist ones.

I am a socialist but I recognise that the private sector is in most cases more efficient than the public sector. Personal gain is a great incentive to succeed (what ever you think of it, its true), and the whole structure of the capitalist system have proven to be very effective and efficient. Most negative effects of capitalism can be avoided/mineralised with some elements of the welfare state and regulation.

You cant, its the other religious dogma that causes the problems. You don’t need religion to be a decent person. I can live by the same principle without believing in gods or spirits. Also, conservstive religious people tend to be very judgemental (i.e. gay people and gay marriage).

bananaman

If world power means being able to leverage your position in world politics etc. then it should be noted that China holds absolutely huge USD reserves and , although it would be cutting off the nost to spite the face, China could completely collapse the USD by releasing all of their USD holdings at once.

"China may curb its future purchases of US Treasuries. The nation has been accumulating foreign reserves at a rate of $50 Billion per quarter and has become the second largest holders of US assets in the world.

from:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx...ification.html


who needs nukes when you have economics

but I tihnk the main point comes down to the fact that world powers wont exist how they did in the past with spheres of influence that are very clsed as the economy is now so global all the big players are so interlinked that one cannot really act without causing a stir in another.

Falstaff

Hey if China raises the value of the their currency the world would be in big trouble...they have many countries by the short hairs economically

Nacht

Well you believe incorrectly.

With communism, there are no property rights, and there are no private holdings. Therefore, you cannot stimulate long term private investment, as everything is "state owned"!

China has been backwards for a very, very long time. It is their experiment in capitalism (i.e., private holdings, foriegn investment) that is helping them break this cycle.

In any case, China's rise economically is a great thing, and shouldn't be feared. Neither should the slight devaluation of the dollar, nor the massive investment our nations share with one another.

I can go into a lot of ways that religion hurts this nation, socially, and economically. But I'll spare you.

Your first sentence here disturbs me. Freedom is in itself perfect. It is not "useless" without responsibility and morality. In fact, it is individual's interpretation of these two ideas (responsibility and morality) that restrics freedoms in the nation. What you consider moral, I may not...and therefore, you cannot run or base a system of government off of these ideas.

Just look at the middle east if you want proof...

cozumel

These two paragraphs are in conflict with each other.

Are you saying beacuse they are communist there are no private holdings? Are you also saying that during the course of their 'capitalist experiment' they are allowing private holdings? Which one is true?

Please clarify, because to be honest, your argument doesnt make sense IMO

Nacht

I'm saying that the system of government in place does very much affect how the economy of a particular nation does.

My first paragraph you quoted is stating how communism hinders economic development, which backs up the statement I make above.

The second is showing why China is doing well. They're not contradicting each other, because China is not working with a 100% communist system anymore.

So, to answer your question, I'm saying both. Both statements are true.

Communism has no private holdings.
China is allowing private holdings and foriegn investment, both parts of capitalism.

cozumel

The economic system is not capitalism in China, it is Market Socialism. Tried briefly and abandoned by the Soviets in (I think) 1920. Also tried for various short periods in other socialist/marxist states over the last 50 years. For any system to be successful it must be sustained over a long period and this has been the longest period any socialist country has tried market socialism.

Just to say on-topic, IMO China is a world power and will be (if policies are continued) the next world superpower. I'm not sure if I like that or not but its the way it is...

Nacht

I don't disagree with you. China isn't capitalist. However, private/foriegn investments and property rights are not part of traditional socialism/communism, they are usually found in capitalist states.

China will be a world power. I'm giving it 15-20 years. Right now they don't have enough influence economically. They are changing the world market, but they have yet to really influence others in a way similar to the United States.

By 2030, There will be 3-5 economic super powers in the world - The United States, China, India, the EU (if you count it as one economy), with some other possibilities thrown in.

- Azure -

On topic.

China GDP = 1op 5 out of hundreds.

China has nukes.

China has massive standing armies.

China has fertile rich lands.

China exports far more than it imports.

China is looking to be the leading manufacturer of hydro-cell powered cars.

China is depended upon for millions of goods worldwide.

China is an indisputable world power already and will only get stronger. Whether some US citizens start sweating about it is a different matter.

Pompey

It’s nice to see you Americans think capitalism is such a good thing. Now maybe you (and Europe, Japan, Korea and almost eveyone else) can start lowering your agriculture subsidies and tariffs so productive NZ farmers can sell their goods (top quality milk, lamb, cheese etc) produced on unsubsidised 100% commercial farms in your markets.

Trade liberalisation w00t!

Nacht

Economic Liberalization (Free Trade, capitalism, etc) is the way to go. Getting the world to 100% free trade will be quite a task.

This is the primary reason that although I am a conservative, I'm not a republican. Republicans and Democrats alike block free trade and capitalism, as well as hurt businesses by supporting these protectionist plans (such as farm subsidies).

Sandok

The day the world reaches 100% free trade will be a welcome step...

The day the industries are all robotized (to the max) will be a welcome step...

If only I'd still be alive during those times To be honest, only in a dictatorship do things get done.

BWX